04.22.10

Chase #4

Posted in Severe Weather Forecast, Storm Chasing at 11:02 am by Rebekah

Today there’s a surface low setting up over Colorado, with a warm front that will later extend through central Kansas and a cold front that will move into eastern New Mexico.  A dryline will set up in the central Texas Panhandle, with dewpoints ahead of the dryline in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Winds will back south of the warm front and along the dryline, where CAPE is forecast to reach between 1500 and 2000 J/kg.  A large trough with a closed low is moving over the southwest, and will provide the lift and upper-air winds to support strong to severe storms.  Wind shear will be present, especially near the warm front.

I expect there will be supercells today along the dryline in the Texas Panhandle, with some large hail and possibly a few tornadoes.  Another point of concern is the triple point, up near the low…it’s a bit of a tough decision for me, between messier precipitation and possibly better shear up north in Kansas, and isolated supercells (at least until the cold front catches up to the dryline and we get a squall line, hopefully not ’til after dark) and slightly lower shear along the dryline.  At this time I’m favoring the dryline, partly because it’s the Panhandle–and I really can’t resist a dryline chase in the Panhandle of Texas!  Besides, cloud cover may prove too formidable up near the low.

I may be streaming today on ChaserTV, if I get my camcorder to work with my old laptop (newer one still in the shop).  I will probably be on Spotter Network as well.

Target: Childress, Texas, to possibly Clarendon/Silverton

Time of Departure: now!

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