04.07.11

Next Severe Storms Risk This Weekend

Posted in Severe Weather Forecast, Storm Chasing at 8:00 am by Rebekah

Here’s the next big trough that the NAM model shows for us, valid at 00Z Sunday (Saturday evening):

The model output for the dewpoint shows a dryline in far western Oklahoma (the GFS shows a bit higher dewpoints, a slightly tighter dryline, and a more well-defined surface low):

Temperatures are going to be a little high, though, and there may not be enough forcing in time to get storms firing along the dryline.

There may be a supercell or two that forms up closer to the dryline / warm front intersection, but so far this setup isn’t anything for me to get excited about.

The bigger severe weather day may be Sunday, but I haven’t looked at that one as much as it will be beyond my chase territory (into the Mississippi River Valley area).

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